FEB 01

Rising temperatures around the world are affecting many food crops and according to a new study done by a Stanford University scientist, wheat will be particularly vulnerable.

David Lobell looked at nine years-worth of images captured by the MODIS Earth-observation satellite to analyze the growing season of wheat in the Ganges plain of India.  What he found was that in the years with higher average temperatures, the wheat fields turned brown earlier meaning that they were no longer growing.

Previous studies have predicted that wheat yields would fall by about 30 percent by 2050 in places like India, but Lobell thinks that realistic yield losses could be about 50 percent greater than existing models show.  That's a scary figure since other studies have shown a need for wheat yields to increase by 50 percent in order to feed a growing global population.

One solution is breeding for wheat plants that have bigger roots and are less stressed by dryer and warmer conditions.  Another option is to breed for plants that are slower growing and can be planted earlier in the season.  That way the wheat could be harvested before the high spring temperatures while retaining its hardiness.  Scientists are already working on these solutions, but either approach will need to have a breakthrough soon to keep up with growing demand and warming temperatures.

via New Scientist

Comments (8)

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so we turn our natural/hibrid seeds to transgenic?
written by Dan, February 02, 2012

i dont think that manipulating our seeds, we will be able to outstrip our present situation, the thing is that even if creating a new more productive-efective-to-growth plant eventually could add another catastrophy to our non resistent humanity, I mean we want to produce more for what ? I dont think that india´s diet is based on wheat and if it does the problem will not be solved by producing more of this grains, i believe that more important that what to modified in our seeds is, what to modified in our sexual education I mean population is the problem not the seeds. dont get me wrong Im pro-development.

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written by Simon, February 02, 2012

Yes, it is pretty well known that wheat browns off during prolonged dry and hot spells. India can fix its problems by depopulating.

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An alternate solution -- perennial wheat
written by JLF, February 03, 2012

Rather than breeding earlier-germinating wheat, another solution is growing perennial wheat. It can be the same species or a close relative that lives from year to year. Thus, it can grow earlier and grow much faster in the good part of the year because it already has a big root system from last year (bonus: less erosion, lower fertilizer & water need). ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/04/big-idea/perennial-grains-text

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Depopulation?
written by Ronald Brak, February 03, 2012

Simon, depopulation seems a bit extreme, but I guess it would ensure plenty of food for the remaining people. I guess the United States would be the logical country for them to depopulate as Americans consume the most food per person. Australia would make a good second choice.

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perennial wheat is a good choice
written by Dan, February 04, 2012

perennial wheat is a good choice JLF, but what about the average production per hectare, compared to the actual production species?, this argument of producing a new hibrid or transgenic it´s all about more production, and people get me wrong I did not mean some terrible commentary about depopulating the world.. its just that people live longer now so we have to keep low our birthrate specialy in areas that live in extreme poberty, i dont now what is going on in US, India or China, but the earth is growing in a unsustainable way (by excess of people) the biggest concentration of citizens that eats for two normal size person is in US,and of course that is not sustainable either, WHATS THE PRICE OF A POUND OF UNPROCESS WHEAT?

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All of the above
written by Bob, February 08, 2012

Depopulation is certainly extreme, but we might manage that without trying. Stopping population growth makes more sense, but sadly we can't even convince the world of the need for that, let alone get it done. We will thus need more food, and if wheat productivity falls off, we're in trouble. I don't think the author said GM, I think the author said to breed new varieties. That can be done by the same means humans have used for millenia, but that may be too slow. I'm also wary of GM crops, but I'm even more wary of famine. We'll probably need some GM crops. Certainly, the consumption rates in the developed world, the US in particular, are a huge problem. Even more, the sense of entitlement that comes with a record of high productivity makes it extremely difficult to bring about change. Not many people in this country will intentionally reduce their standard of living, but that's really what we in the developed world are facing. The central point I'm trying to make is there is no single solution. Anything available to us just nibbles away at the issues, so if we're going to get anywhere we have to use everything at our disposal. It isn't either/or, it's all of the above. The most important, of course, being population. And that's here in the US, too.

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written by Mookie, February 08, 2012

Yes, the U.S. is the biggest consumer of wheat, and every other food item per capita. My first thought upon reading this piece was "one more argument for reducing our wheat consumption along with our corn consumption, and our beef consumption..."

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Depopulate and save the growing obesity epidemic
written by Daniel, February 08, 2012

Wheat contributes a high amount of carbohydrates to the diet of any culture these days but mainly Westerners. To have wheat completely gone would be a godsend to our health. We could eat it in moderation but moderation isnt apart of our vocabulary.

In terms of depopulating they are already trying to do it through wars, disease, vaccinations, lack of health care to low income earners. What ever way they can think of to kill off the "lesser" people.

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