Progression of US Cities Reaching Solar Grid Parity

Grid parity in cost between solar power and grid-supplied electricity is likely to begin being reached in the US in as little as 2 years, and within the next 25 years, many of the largest metropolitan areas will reach the point where solar is less expensive. An animated map from Energy Self Reliant States shows the picture.

This timeline includes no government subsidies in the calculations. It uses a baseine cost of solar power in 2011 at $4.00 per watt, installed. Using the average residential grid supplied electricity price for each metro area, it makes the two assumptions based on present trends to determine when the price of solar drops below grid: the cost of solar decreases by 7% per year, and the grid electricity price increases by 2% per year.

Based on these assumptions, the San Diego CA metropolitan area will be at solar parity in 2013, and within the next 25 years, many of the largest metropolitan areas will reach the point where solar is less expensive.

via: BoingBoing

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Assumptions may be wrong...
written by Doc Rings, January 05, 2012

Funny thing about assumptions... they are frequently awry. Today (1/5/2012), there was a PBS radio new program on how the cost of solar was up (due to decreasing gov't subsidies as more people install) and the cost of natural gas generated electricity was down... about doubling the recuperation time for home panels, to about 17 years. The solar owner interviewed said that is the lifespan of his equipment..., and the cost does not include repairs (as needed).

-4

Grid Parity Either Now or Soon in Australia
written by Ronald Brak, January 06, 2012

Solar module prices are now low enough for the cheapest installations to be reaching grid parity here in Australia. (The cheapest installations are usually on large flat roofs or on the ground.) It will be interesting to see how rapidly PV use expands over the next few years here. High levels of sunshine and high retail electricity prices mean that Australia and Hawaii can be test cases for what happens when grid parity is reached.

Human Being
written by Robert Smith, January 12, 2012

Assumptions appear to be incongruent. A comparison based on either lifetime $/W or on installed $/W of both dirty energy and PV would be more appropriate. Also, if the analysis would take away tax breaks, discounts, depreciation and subsidies (for both dirty energy and PV) the results would definitely show that PV has already far exceeded "parity" in most areas of the US.

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Progression of US Cities Reaching Solar Grid Parity

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